What will the wine world look like a year from now? Will our assessment of 2021 be good, bad, or ugly? Last week's Wine Economist column briefly explored a 'Roaring Twenties' scenario that is making the rounds both for wine and for the economy generally.
The Roaring Twenties theory holds that the pandemic has created pent-up demand for all the things that we've had to sacrifice in the last year but that will soon become available again. Parties and celebrations. Gatherings in bars and restaurants. Travel and tourism. They won't all necessarily come roaring back at once, but the rebound will be substantial and be fueled by a corresponding rebound in economic activity.
The Roaring Twenties scenario is what I call a 'ceteris paribus' (holding all else constant) theory. That is, it assumes that pretty much everything remains the same except that the covid vaccine lets people come out and play. With interest rates pegged near zero, fiscal stimulus doubling-down, and financial markets soaring, the good times will surely roll, or at least that's what some hope and others firmly believe.
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The Wheel's Still in Spin
But it is important to keep in mind that a lot of positive events have to line up all at once for this to happen. I was reminded of this by the cover of The Economist newspaper's The World in 2021 issue, which features a casino slot machine device (and not a crystal ball) as its symbol. The future isn't written and waiting to be perceived is the message here. There is a lot of risk and uncertainty ahead.
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The future, whatever it turns out to be, won't be just one thing. It will be the combination of what happens on the politics wheel, the economics wheel, the public health wheel, the environment wheel, and so on. Our experience in 2020 shows that these wheels can sometimes align in terrible ways — think pandemic, recession, wildfires, and social and political unrest. There is even the chance of problems in one area cascading through the system in a vicious cycle.
We might feel we deserve the happy flip-side of things in 2021, but the odds of a golden Goldilocks outcome are longer than we'd like. We should anticipate problems as well as potential good times. Not trying to be unnecessarily gloomy — just realistic.
To simplify, let's imagine that 2021 depends on four variables or spinning wheels: public health, economy, politics, and the possibility of 'black swan' wild card events Clearly there are many different possibilities for public health. The hope for very fast roll out of vaccines is no longer realistic, although there is a sense that officials are learning quickly about troublesome bottlenecks. Fingers crossed …
Attention is focused on vaccines, but the virus surge continues in many regions with record case counts and deaths. It isn't clear how quickly vaccination can overcome community spread and whether this third infection round is the last or will be followed by more surges or echoes of this one into the future.
Spinning the Economic Wheel
Clearly a lot is riding on where the public health wheel settles, especially for the travel and hospitality sectors, which are economically important both in general and for the wine industry. Then there is the economy wheel. to consider.
The relatively strong economic recovery in the United States is built on heroic levels of government support, which will end at some point, but when? Will monetary authorities hold their nerve and keep the spigots open as the economy begins to open? Will fiscal stimulus continue to preserve incomes and employment? What about the high levels of debt that corporations and governments have taken on?
This will depend to a certain extent on politics. Each of the major economies is currently experiencing its own unique brand of political instability or crisis. It is easy to imagine scenarios where political crisis in one country creates contagious economic or social problems elsewhere. Here in the United States there is widespread disagreement about what a good political result would look like. Many observers, for example, were happy when it looked like Republicans would control the Senate and gridlock would prevail. Gridlock, to this way of thinking, would mean that only the most moderate policy actions would prevail.
The Curse of the Black Swan
Now, with Democrats in the White House and majorities in the House and Senate, more aggressive policies are possible, at least in theory. Is this good or bad? Opinions vary according to political persuasion and the particular programs considered. So you can see that ceteris is unlikely to be paribus in 2021. And that doesn't take into account any 'black swan' wild cards that might be on the deck.
A Black Swan event is something with very low (but not zero) probability, but very high impact. The covid pandemic of 2020 is a good example of a Black Swan event. The possibility of a global pandemic, originating in Asia and spreading through international travel vectors has been known for some time. Indeed several of my university students studied the situation in the aftermath of earlier Asian pandemics and a number of government- and non-government agencies worked on detailed response plans.
It seemed pretty clear that there would be a problem eventually, but the particular path and specific consequences were not clear. Looking back it appears that countries that had previously experienced such a pandemic took the possibility more seriously and acted more decisively than others did. In any case, the low-probability event happened and the cost has been very high.
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Black Swan Inflation
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Inflation is the Black Swan event I most worry about for 2021. (Although I am not sure which kind of inflation — see Neil Irwin's recent New York Times column.) Most economists acknowledge that there is a chance of an inflation spike is 2021 or 2022, but most assign a very low probability to the threat. Nothing to worry about. And probably they are right. However …
Literally trillions of dollars (and other currencies) have been pumped into the global economy recently and so far inflation in general has remained very low Governments and businesses have borrowed enormous sums at the resulting low or even negative interest rates. A resurgence of inflation would push interest rates higher and alter dramatically the economic landscape.
In a way, an inflationary surge would make the covid pandemic crisis a bit like the oil crisis of the 1970s. The initial impact of the oil crisis was harshly disruptive, but the long term effects, including both high inflation and the draconian policies needed to contain it, were challenging, too, and cast a long shadow over global events.
Good, Bad, or Ugly?
So you can see that the Roaring Twenties is just one of many possible economic scenarios and, even if it comes to pass as many hope, there are still many possible pathways and denouements. Good, bad, or ugly? Too soon to tell.
I know that some people believe that wine is immune to economic cycles, but wine businesses are businesses with debts, interest payments, counter-party risks, and so on. What happens to the economy happens to all of us in one way or another and it is wise to think about the possibilities.
Times are changing and perhaps that's as much as we can confidently predict. This kind reminds me of an old Bob Dylan song. Listen up!
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Slot Spike 2021 Game
One of the most favored games in gambling Malaysia is online slot game. If you want to pick for the very best slot game online Malaysia, you can check out 12Play online casino Malaysia. There are a huge variety of slot machine games from the top slot online developer in the market, which includes Pragmatic Play, Spadegaming, Playtech, CQ9 Gaming, Toptrend Gaming, and more. It is pretty fun and thrilling when waiting for the combination of the slot games shown on the reels, makes your adrenaline spike up and emotionally excited.
Slot game online Malaysia is absolutely great as it is significantly easy to play. We are here today to share with you some helpful tips and guide you can refer when playing slot game online Malaysia in 2021. Let's get started.
Img source: freepik.com
Contents
Choose the Right Reputable Online Casino
Make sure that you check with few casino sites at the beginning before you make decision in order to make the most out of your time and also your precious time. What we have suggested here can be just a judge or reference. Although not every gambling platform will need you to submit your personal details, but don't forget to take note the security of the site. Check the license of the particular online casino and make sure there are legit and safe to invest your time and money on casino games.
If you really out of idea on choosing the right platform, you may search from some gambling review sites or forums. This might help you to filter and give you a clearer picture of the options based on your needs and wants.
Play with Free Trial Games
Test the water before you start with your real money betting, with this method, you will know if the particular game is great to play with, or if the game suitable for you, matching to your preference. After with all the free trial games, you will slowly find out what is the right games that you more comfortable with.
However, if online slot game doesn't fit with what you demand, you may stop and try out other gambling games that available on the platform. Find out the one particular game where you are good at, stick to it and start with low budget and gain experience.
Starts with the Basics Slot Games
If you are just a new comer to online casino, or just exploring slot games online. It's is better to start with the basic. Choose a simpler game to try on, learn from the traditional or basic ones then only slowly moving to the more advance slot games.
Spend a bit of time to learn and don't be stress to move fast to another stage, all you need is to get yourself familiar with the games and bet at your own pace. Betting on a small amount of money and only try when you feel comfortable to bet on a higher risk.
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Always Know Your Own Betting Limits
Playing online slot games can be really fun, and we all know that there the temptations to play in online casino site is hard to resist. It may soon become an addictive hobby to the players. Slot games is the most exciting and creative games in current gambling market. We advise you to always set a losing limit to yourself before you start the game.
Check your bankroll and see the amount of money that you would be likely to spend on gambling games. To be honest, winning in slot game online Malaysia is not easy, but it is tremendously available. Also, it is important to keep you bet size while playing online slot games in Malaysia. This is to keep yourself alert not to go too far and be responsible in gambling.
Img source: freepik.com
Use the Advantages of Bonuses and Promotions
We do believe that everyone loves free rewards. Most of the online gambling site will offer different range of bonuses and promotions. Take the advantage of free spins, cashbacks, rewards, no deposit bonuses, free credits and more.
The bonuses are not only limited on online slot games but also other casino games such as sports betting, esports betting, 4D lottery, live casino games and more. This can help you to save some of your wager and take a better opportunity in winning big. Sometimes the rewards aren't as high as you thought, but it is always better than nothing.
Understand the Percentage of Payout
The percentage of slot game online Malaysia are often changed from 80% to 98%. In order to enjoy the higher chances of winning, we suggest that you play the slot machine game online that offers you the largest payout ratio.
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Always Know Your Own Betting Limits
Playing online slot games can be really fun, and we all know that there the temptations to play in online casino site is hard to resist. It may soon become an addictive hobby to the players. Slot games is the most exciting and creative games in current gambling market. We advise you to always set a losing limit to yourself before you start the game.
Check your bankroll and see the amount of money that you would be likely to spend on gambling games. To be honest, winning in slot game online Malaysia is not easy, but it is tremendously available. Also, it is important to keep you bet size while playing online slot games in Malaysia. This is to keep yourself alert not to go too far and be responsible in gambling.
Img source: freepik.com
Use the Advantages of Bonuses and Promotions
We do believe that everyone loves free rewards. Most of the online gambling site will offer different range of bonuses and promotions. Take the advantage of free spins, cashbacks, rewards, no deposit bonuses, free credits and more.
The bonuses are not only limited on online slot games but also other casino games such as sports betting, esports betting, 4D lottery, live casino games and more. This can help you to save some of your wager and take a better opportunity in winning big. Sometimes the rewards aren't as high as you thought, but it is always better than nothing.
Understand the Percentage of Payout
The percentage of slot game online Malaysia are often changed from 80% to 98%. In order to enjoy the higher chances of winning, we suggest that you play the slot machine game online that offers you the largest payout ratio.
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From the percentage of payout, you can roughly know how likely you will be winning in that particular gambling game. Is your initiative to check if the casino you playing with offers you the highest payout rates.
Always Seek for Help from the Customer Support Team
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If you have any questions or issues about the slot game online, or any other problems in online casino. Do not hesitate to seek for help from the 24/7 live chat customer support team. They will usually reply promptly so that all your queries are being solve within few minutes. Hence, don't get panic and overwhelmed when you encounter such issues. Solutions are always just right beside you.
Conclusion
There are too many online gambling websites out there. Slot games online in Malaysia is a wonderful way for you to relax from the hectic work and stress life. However, you might be losing your track if you are not careful with managing your money well or maybe insufficient of research the game in detail.
If you demand to get the most ideal type of slot games, we encourage you to take your precious time to do own research and select for the right one. We hope that all these wonderful tips are able to guide you when playing slot game online in Malaysia. All the best and good luck!
